A POLITICAL WARNING - AT 8:20 A.M. ET:  Republicans are becoming more optimistic that they can put a stop to the Obama steamroller, and they appear to have about half the American people with them.

But a warning:  The name of the game in politics is "win."  We don't give out prizes for second place.  Having a good argument isn't enough.  Strategies must be well executed, with the right candidate, and even experienced candidates can falter.

Consider what's happening to the very popular and supremely experienced Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, who will resign from the Senate soon to run for governor, a post that could be a steppingstone to the presidency.  Apparently, as they say, mistakes have been made:

AUSTIN — U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison began this year as “Kay the Invincible.” But as she prepares to officially launch her bid for governor later this month, that aura is gone.

Hutchison entered the year with the ability to make other politicians quake. She had two re-election victories under her belt with more than 60 percent of the vote in each. Her popularity ratings in polls put her at the top among Texas politicians. And public polls showed her leading Gov. Rick Perry by anywhere from 6 to 27 percentage points.

Then Hutchison went silent — leaving the field of Texas politics to Perry for more than four months.

The senator “squandered her opportunity,” Republican political consultant Mark Sanders said. “She ceded the Republican base to Governor Perry.”

Perry focused a message on conservative Republican primary voters. He railed against the federal government, against stimulus funding, against federal health care plans and for states' rights. Hutchison's advantage in the polls was eliminated, and Perry took a lead of more than 10 percentage points in three separate polls in June.

COMMENT:  Douglas MacArthur once warned that all defeats begin with two words:  Too late.  Rudy Giuliani squandered his chance at the presidency by waiting too long to get into the race.  Mario Cuomo squandered his chance by waiting, then not getting in at all.

Hutchison may recover.  But she forgot that the right to remain silent is reserved for accused criminals.  If you're not going to be in the fight, the other guy wins.  And this is a lesson for Republicans, who have a tendency to be very casual about getting into the fight and winning.

Proof?  Remember President Dewey?  He thought he had it in the bag also.

August 3, 2009